Yay, research and analytics! Today’s pro-Android projections come from Gartner who just last year predicted Android would be the second-most adopted mobile operating system by 2012. I guess Android did a lot better than they originally expected because they’re now pushing that window up to “by year-end 2010”. According to them, they’ll be beaten only by Nokia whose Symbian OS has been on the market much longer than most of their competitors’ and in a variety of devices ranging from low to high end (with origins dating back to the late 1980s).
This is not to be confused by sales market share – which usually goes quarter-by-quarter and on a sales-only basis. This is a projection of Android’s true install base over time. By 2014, they expect Android and Symbian to account for nearly 60% of the worldwide market share combined, with Android eventually taking the lead before that year is over (as the two will be neck and neck at nearly 30% each). A year ago, it sounded crazy. So did Android growing by 900%, and look how that turned out. With Gartner not only adjusting their expectations, but adjusting them dramatically, I can’t say these predictions sound too farfetch’d. Go, Andy, go!