Another Analyst Sets Low Expectations for the XOOM, Predicts Motorola to Sell only 300,000 this Quarter


At first glance, you might think 300,000 units sold would be perfectly healthy figures for the Motorola XOOM in its first quarter. When you then realize the original iPad sold over that amount in its first day alone and the iPad 2 expected to push its launch weekend sales even higher, the estimated figure put forth by Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt seems a bit underwhelming. His calculation is based on averages showing only two XOOMs sold per day through Verizon, though units moved through Best Buy were not included in his count.

Anyway you slice it, analysts don’t have it out very good for the XOOM. Whether one is saying Android Honeycomb is to blame with its geek-oriented approach or another points to a high price tag, most feel Motorola’s attempt at tablet relevancy is doomed with the launch of the iPad 2. What we are more interested to see is how the XOOM sells once a contract-free Wi-Fi version is available at a lower price point, as this may be the only true way to compare the freely available iPad to a device currently only available via a wireless carrier.

[via Electronista]

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  1. it’s the price! plain and simple

  2. I’d be happy with that… in a sense, the Xoom is the tablet G1… not many people gave the G1 much respect either. Unfortunately for the Xoom too, it entered the market in a very brief window before the iPad 2 hit, and as of right now, that name dominates the media.

  3. Its all about adoption standards. The majority of us nerdier types prefer Android. I could imagine more men use android and a 4:1 ratio or higher. iProducts are geared towards the masses in general and Women. So yea, the iProducts will always sell more. But the Android is a much more fun product!

  4. Are these “analysts” ever right?

  5. I think the pricing structure is part of the issue. With the iPad there are multiple choices for the device at different prices, so there is the option to get a cheaper version. With Xoom, one can currently only by a high-end tablet and not everyone can manage that. It will be quite interesting to see what happens once there is a WiFi-only version or if Motorola even releases one with less memory to lower the price. Time will tell. I just with these analysts would stop speaking of the doom on Honeycomb! Once there are other tablets out, the picture will change.

  6. It’s the price, I would probably get one but it’s really really darn expensive.

  7. They completely missed the boat with the geek status. Android could never have moved the way it was if it was just geeks and nerds using it. It likely won’t sell as many as the iPad, but it’ll definetely sell a lot. The Tab sold over a million easily, and it wasn’t near the tablet the Xoom is. These iFan analysts are a dime a dozen and can easily makes bold, untrue predictions because few remember them and hold them accountable when proven wrong, which Android does a lot.

  8. Can we please stop saying that the xoom is overpriced? $800 is obviously not the real price of the xoom. The forthcoming wi-fi only version at $600 proves that point, so I won’t mention it again. The xoom is $600, plain and simple. Which is the exact same price as the comparable iPad! (ie: the 32gb verion iPad) It doesn’t cost more than the iPad and the xoom is at least as good if not better than the second gen iPad. Why do people think that to break into the tablet market a competitor will have to sell for cheaper? Android phones are now the best selling smart phones in America, and when did the best selling of the android phones come out below the price of the iPhone? Why am I hearing this again? This same talk was all over when the Nexus One came out.

    To anticipate what some will say about the $600 3G version under contract.

    My response: Are you kidding me!?!

    If I spend more than $200 dollars on a device I do so with the intention of using it for more than 2 years. Anyone who doesn’t needs to send me the money that they obviously don’t know what to do with. So if you want to pay for the device with 3G capability, and not the one that will come out in a few weeks time without it, then get the contract. Who in their right mind wouldn’t? Do you buy your phones for full price too?

  9. The price is Xoom’s biggest and only real issue.

    Actually, I should say that the lack of model options is its biggest issue. 800 is fair for what you get.

    Had their been a 16gb, wifi only model, Motorola would have easily sold twice as many, at least. Why the hell did Motorola bend over for Verizon on this?

    Damn I’m so sick of carriers interfering with hardware.

  10. It amazing me that anyone post or write up anything a analyst say that is short sighted. These statements about how the xoom is doomed when compared to the ipad2 are almost comical. The proof will be in the comparison of sales numbers similar products, that being the xoom and the ipad2 64gb 3g. I would surprised if 250k of the ipad2 64gb 3g are sold in the first quarter. This is where the analyst did to base their information. This is like saying ferrari is doomed because chevy is going to sells more vehicles worldwide.

    Bottom line anyone could be a analyst if it was accepted to say one thing is going to fail when competing against 6 competing products at varied pricing.

  11. The price and the fact that it DID NOT ship with a wifi only version at launch is the reason why the XOOM will fail..

  12. They r probably shorting MO. Financial analysts r right up there with used car salesmen

  13. this is based on how the 3G/4g $799 version is selling. How the Xoom will do overall depends on the price of the WiFi version. *pple’s biggest sellers are the 16 & 32 GB WiFi versions. . . so this isn’t a shocker especially for a first gen early adoption carrier release.

  14. If anyone at Motorola thought the Xoom would have great sales numbers while being priced at $800, that person should be fired.

  15. Xoom apologists are funny. I’m an Apple hater and Linux/Android fanboy, but the cold hard truth is that the iPad is just fucking better. A lot better. Stop making excuses. Having played with the Xoom and iPad 1 side by side, there really isn’t any question. iPad’s operation is smoother, more coherent and feels better in the hand. The screen dimensions of 4/3 is the right decision for this form factor (I doubted this at first). Also, the colors look much better than the higher res Xoom. This doesn’t even take into account that the “lack of Apps” problem
    It pains me to admit this, but it’s true. Xoom is an overpriced, undercooked disaster next to iPad 2.
    Anyone who dropped $800 on this thing for it’s “potential” is a sucker. Period.

  16. its the price im tellin ya…..

  17. In addition to price and the carrier’s strangle hold, the weight and thickness of the device are a problem. The iPad2 is way out ahead in this department. I’m not worried about Honeycomb. It will get better with time and apps will become available. Hardware doesn’t get better with age though.

  18. Its 100% the price. Android is the dominate phone os now because carriers sell cheap android phones.

    If the AVERAGE Android owner had the choice a) Their current Android phone or B) iPhone and price was no option. I would say 95% would pick the iPhone. Why? because the average android phone is underpowered, the iPhone is what all the “cool” people have and its the one that gets all the media attention.

    Android has seen such rapid growth because of the low price points and honestly thats all.

    Now – the low price points and volume of units sold has allowed Google to improve android exponentially but its still not as smooth/stable/user friendly as iOS devices.

    If the Xoom were $250 it would sell like hotcakes but being the same price as the iPad is exactly the problem.

  19. $400 and I’ll take one now.

  20. Really? Promoting another moron “anal-yst”? Although Motorola did make a mistake selling the device tied to a carrier and holding off on the wifi only version. I think when Apple released the wifi only version first last year, they thought everyone would want a 3g version, and were quickly proven wrong.

    With the iPad, Apple makes the most money on the 32gb version. They add 16gb, and increase the price by $100. Then they add 32gb and increase the price by $100. If they’re just adding more chips, then the additional 32gb is double the cost of the additional 16gb. If 16gb cost $50, then they would be making no additional profit on the 64gb over the 32gb, and $50 additional profit on the 32gb over the 16gb. Of course, there’s no way the ram costs them that much.

    This is a long way of saying it’s very unlikely that there will be a 16gb Xoom for $500. The margin would be too small. Apple can do it because the iPad isn’t about selling iPads, its about selling content through iTunes and the App Store.

  21. Yawn. Remember those disappointing sales estimates for phones in the early days of Android? Heck, remember what a flop the Nexus One was? I’m not worried, but Apple should be. It doesn’t matter if XOOM is successful or not. Honeycomb is amazing, and in time Android tablets will sell like crazy.
    Sure, it looks like XOOM isn’t quite ready yet, what with not-yet-functional microSD, missing Flash, and some instability. But, in the grand scheme of things, who cares? Look at what the Android team was able to build in one year. In a couple of months, those issues will be addressed. Honeycomb already runs circles around iOS, and it will just get better over the next year, while the Apple faithful wait for iPad 3. And releasing a Honeycomb device early just gives developers more time to tweak their apps for the tablet. That much-touted 65,000 app lead will quickly evaporate.

  22. Jared, just because you’re a pathetic sheep who would follow all the other pathetic sheep doesn’t mean everyone else is.

  23. So I already know 3 people who got one, so I somehow think those sales numbers can’t be right.

  24. Actually I hate iOS I can direct you to my twitter feed for proof if you’d like. I’m in business those are facts, try to reason with them instead of engaging in ad hominem.

  25. sorry Anakin, those comments are directed at Tom. I have no evidence of you being ignorant.

  26. There really needs to be an edit comment ability. Tom=Todd

  27. Its 100% price that it hasn’t sold well. I’m not saying that what you get is not worth the money especially when you compare to ipad or ipad2, but the problem is they set the. Price to high with a smaller market than apple.

    If they were able to make a stripped down Verizon for $499 to showcase with their top model they would have sold more at the $799 price as well as selling the cheaper model.

    I’d lime to know of those ipads sold how many of them were the highest priced models? And I bet these highest priced ones were only sold cause the stores were out of the cheaper ones.

  28. Jared, do you have any statistics to back up those claims or are they groundless? I myself own a high end Android phone and would not trade it for the iPhone given the choice, notice that both cost the same amount at my time of purchase.

    I’ll agree with you that Android’s cheaper options are a causation for the rapid growth but claiming that that is the only reason (without proper data mind you) is simply your speculation. Now, I am curious what you are basing “underpowered” on? The Incredible, Droid X, Atrix, Droid 2, EVO, Galaxy S, Nexus S, Nexus One, are all great Android phones that are at least on par with the iPhone 4 as far as hardware is concerned and I know there are others that I’ve missed.

    Android 2.3 is a very smooth and cohesive OS and although it is quite as user friendly as iOS it is much more customizable and brings a lot more to the table.

    The Xoom is a more powerful tablet than the iPad 2, the only problem it has is the lack of apps for Android tablets; a problem that is likely to be reminded as the software matures.

  29. Price. Make a wifi only model. Dumbass moto


    As someone who owns an evo and loves it I understand completely what your saying. I wouldn’t change my phone one bit.

    Less than a half of Android phones are “High End” While high end users may be likely to desire android. Low end phone users are likely to be apathetic (assumptions I know). Combine that with the Nielson study that found Android users are twice as likely as iPhone users to want the competing OS.

    To me what this signals is penetration by virtue of the low price point, its absolutely sustainable in the long run, but that kind of penetration REQUIRES the low price. Meaning Android tablets likelihood of penetrating the emerging tablet market is marginal if they can’t penetrate by virtue of price. Apple is too good of a marketer and has a huge first mover advantage for Honeycomb tablets to make any significant splash.

    Sure geeks like me will buy one, but Geeks like me are hardly representative of the general population.

  31. Bottom line is this i still believe the AVERAGE android user (I will define as a purchaser of a low end device because 1. its a very capable smartphone 2. Low prices). They will not be willing to enter the tablet market because the tablet market is not relatively low price.

    And if they decide to enter the market when they compare side by side the the Xoom (et al) and iPad with no price difference, the marketing presence and overall “cleanness” of iOS is likely to win them over.

    Android relies on price primarily. If it can’t deliver and market low priced tablets no significant penetration into the tablet realm will occur.

  32. Listen, we can make all the excuses we want. The Xoom is a rushed product, proven by the numerous negative reviews. Let’s stop supporting a subpar product simply because of the OS. If we demand better from companies they will deliver.

  33. Apple also releases all version at the same time not just the 3g version

  34. For me its blatantly obvious why its not selling.

    $800.00 is too much for “most” people to fork over when a more established device is available at a lower cost.

    Sure if you compare the top of line IPAD2 to the Xoom the price is comparable but the problem is with the IPAD2 you get a choice all the way down to $499.00 The Xoom would so obviously sell better if the makers and phone carriers were not so greedy thinking they can milk the public for an “android device” because it hot right now giving them little to 0 choice putting them on a contract, 1 month data plan(maybe change now but was the plan) and 3g only not wifi option out the gate.

    Give us the options to start of buying a cheaper wifi only version, I would have bought one on day 1 if there was a wifi version for around $500.00

    I love android rocking my N1 and GTV i’m an early adopter and have discretionary income to spend on gadgets but I decided against buying one of these yet, might just skip this first generation and get a 2nd when there is more competition around.

  35. I don’t know about Ma0 but I love my Xoom. I love that it can be customized, that a dev just allowed USB host support, that my system runs pretty smooth and is only going to get better and a whole lot more. This is the first real android tablet and a Google experience device at that. It is exactly what I thought it was going to be. If they waited longer to give it more polish then I would not be able to type on it now as I wait for some friends at the Las Vegas airport.

    No single tablet will sell more then the ipad…so get over that. However combined the amount of people using android will quickly surpassed apple just as it happened with smart phones

  36. I think ma() has the bottom line here. We can’t just support products because they have “android” inside. If we support half baked hardware we will only ever get half baked hardware.

  37. As others have said, it all comes down to price. The interface is not ‘geek oriented’. That is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Surely came from some iTard Apple fanboy because they are all incapable of knowing good technology when they see it so they need a company like Apple to tell them what to buy, when to buy it, and how much to pay. They cannot see the forest from the trees.

  38. We need the buy 1 get 1 free promotion for android tablets, just like the android phones

  39. @Harold: No, that’s not true. It is /this/ time, but with the original iPad the WiFi version launched before the WiFi + 3G version did.

    @Beaker: “The proof will be in the comparison of sales numbers similar products, that being the xoom and the ipad2 64gb 3g. I would surprised if 250k of the ipad2 64gb 3g are sold in the first quarter. This is where the analyst did to base their information. This is like saying ferrari is doomed because chevy is going to sells more vehicles worldwide.”

    Your point is taken in terms of raw sales, but it isn’t raw sales that matters in this case. What matters is ecosystem. To use your Ferrari and Chevy example, if the two cars take different types of gas and Chevy sells way more cars than Ferrari does, which type of gas are most gas stations going to carry?

    The Xoom may sell as well as — or even better than — the equivalent iPad 2 high-end model, but when looking at the tablet apps market, the same apps for that high-end iPad 2 /also/ run on the low-end iPad 2 (or in many cases, the original iPad). Right now, if you want to use Honeycomb, you need a high-end tablet (because there aren’t any low-end Honeycomb tablets, yet).

    Now, this isn’t a killer issue, because eventually there will be other tablets /besides the Xoom/ covering the rest of the range for Honeycomb. But as things stand /right now/, the Xoom’s price is a disadvantage.

  40. (Also, whoever added newline support to the comment system, THANK YOU. YOU ARE WONDERFUL.)

  41. @fred your right about about price but shortsighted about interface. The interface isn’t “geek oriented” but an impartial judge would likely find android a more “complicated” interface (not a bad thing necessarially). As a geek myself I appreciate the complexity of android the majority of Android users however will never root never tap into other awesome stuff. the average user simply wants his phone to make calls, get on the internet and have mind numbing apps to occupy his time.

    Android doesn’t need another super phone with blinding specs but needs more to notch apps/games to attract iphone users.

  42. Excuses, excuses, excuses…..who’s drinking the kool-aid now??

  43. Lol @ AD!!! Here come the 2 for 1 Honeycomb deals!!!!

  44. Way more people would buy it if they decreased the price.

  45. Bottom line, Motorola had a highly anticipated product and totally botched the launch with a single high priced model, and no other choices for customers. Unfortunately by the time they figure it out, not only is the IPAD2 out but so will other highly competitive Android Tablets, which will undoubtedly eat into any advantage the Xoom had for being first.

  46. @Jared…

    Android still requires a $30 / month data plan, costing about $800 over two years with taxes and fees, same as an iPhone. And one can pick up an iPhone 3GS, still a good device, for only $49. Android is growing because it is easy on manufacturers, easy on carriers, and open and customizable for the consumer. Think Windows and Mac. Same thing is starting to play out now with Android and iOS.

  47. Motorola priced and marketed the XOOM as if it were the first major product in a new space, when in fact it is a competitive product in an existing space. Sure, the specs are great, but it’s a year late to market so the first mover pricing power is history. They need to cut the price by 35% and aggressively market the product for what it is – a competitive product in another company’s product space and then they can begin to gain market share. As it is now, their market share is likely to be measured in the low single digits, hardly worth the effort for a company the size of Motorola, and a disappointment for us users.

  48. No flash. No deal. Promised to add flash in the future….. It is tough to trust Android vendors. They promised but slow to act or never. Ipad 2 is here now, Xoom still don’t have flash yet. I getting an ipad 2.

  49. IPad2 64gb storage $849. 32gb is still $749. So for a measly $50 u get a free 4g upgrade on the Xoom. know what that’ll cost u for Ipad3….whatever u paid for the Ipad2 and probably then some. The experts are all generally apple users who have long drunk the kool aid and can’t view anything objectively. Ipad is for the feeble minded and Android is for the open minded plain as that

  50. @Jared. Which magazine, newspaper, blog, or encyclopedia do you write for?

  51. Xoom will fail, but android will still succeed in both smart phones and tablets

  52. I was under the impression that the initial iPad sales were what the Apple corporation “sold” to Apple stores and Best Buys?

    I only tend to believe that because I live in a very…hmmm, trend-whorey area and have seen only one iPad since it was released (I see a crap-load of Macs though).

  53. I’ve been saying Xoom will fail on day one, and price is only half the story. I’d rather get an iPad, and I don’t even own any Apple products. There isn’t a single outstanding reason for me to consider the Xoom over an iPad, especially for the price. I’d rather have the HTC Flyer, unless it too is priced out of the market. All I need is Wifi. I have ZERO desire to own a tablet tethered to a cellular provider.

  54. To me it’s blatantly obvious why they’re not selling – Its Shit!

  55. Motorola could sell it at half price and I wouldn’t get a Xoom. Too many bad experiences with the software support they offer outside the US.

  56. exclusive deal with verizon = fail.

  57. My interest is seriously lagging. By the time it launches in Europe we will probably have launch dates for loads of other Android tablets and the so so reviews it has received will make me pause. If they had a wifi only version in Europe at launch I would have bought it.

  58. I’ll continue to beat a dead horse until Motorola gets it:

    It’s the price and the exclusive deal with Verizon

  59. Can I just let you remember that at the moment there is only one model of Xoom available and the most expensive one? On the other hand you got 6 different models for the iPad 2 with different price tags! 300.000 in a month being the only real alternative in an almost monopolistic market seems like a huge success to me.
    My analysis is that by the end of this year there will be more Android tablets in the world than iPad 2.

  60. XOOM is overpriced…Otherwise I’d have one….I already have an iPad and would probably get the iPad 2 if it had flash. Let’s see where Wifi and no contract version lands them. I hope Motorola is reading consumer sentiments on this…

  61. @deepo a quarter is 3 months

  62. Xoom is doomed for several reasons, not just price. It loses to iPad because of poor message control, poor judgment of the market share, poor timing, poor apps selection, and poor understanding of what the majority of users are looking for in a tablet. It is not about the specs, it is not about Flash.

    Those articles that list the specs of Xoom and iPad 2 side-by-side for comparison completely miss the point. A better analysis would be the “satisfaction” factor (if we can measure that), when someone is using the Xoom vs. the iPad, or even when someone unbox the devices. Yes, it is completely irrational. And that’s where Motorola fails, it caters only to the rational side of the human brain.

  63. Here’s the simple logic:

    Apple is premium brand.
    Everyone(most) want macbook pro but it’s too expensive. Everybody knows mbp is the luxury item everybody wants.

    When ipad became available for cheap price, everybody jumped on it.
    People who can either afford one computer or don’t care for computer and just want something to browse from home, do you really think they are going to pick Motorola Xoom????? EVEN if it was $499????

    I am a geek and I own mbp/ipad 2 and droid X. I like droid X….. but.. for most….

    Do you really think general mass who goes to work 9 to 5 and really don’t read these posts care about booting into custom rom and have 1000 home screens and watch UI move fast? Droid is VIZIO… You get the picture..

  64. That’s 300,000 for the quarter, which is a span of 3 months, not 1 month. As the author states, the original ipad sold more than that in 1 day.

  65. @DeePO

    You are absolutely correct on the:

    “My analysis is that by the end of this year there will be more Android tablets in the world than iPad 2”

    But they are sitting as returns back in manufacturers’ warehouses tho..

    They really need to start buy 1 get 1 free promo, maybe some will actually ending up in someone’s house.

  66. Just because it doesn’t sell as many units as iPad doesn’t mean it’s a failure. We don’t know Moto’s expectations and predictins on how many units needed to be sold to get a solid ROI.

    As long as it sells to Moto’s expectations, it’s a sucessful product.

    In regard to market share of Android’s tablet OS, this is not a make-it-or-break it device. Google is not going to “lose” because the first, early adopter, “experience” product doesn’t outsell the iPad or because the first iteration of their OS has bugs.

    Also, the expectation of one, fully loaded SKU outselling six Apple SKUs at varying price points is internet forum nonsense.

  67. @Jo: the 1st is going to end on 31 March no matter what the launch data was, that makes around a month of life for the Xoom.

    Another thing, all iPad 2 models are already available while there are other Honeycomb tablets hitting the market in the next weeks, that also keep people from buying the Xoom right now.

  68. @Shane none as of now

  69. Quality over quantity.

  70. @Jason “I was under the impression that the initial iPad sales were what the Apple corporation “sold” to Apple stores and Best Buys?”

    That is incorrect. Apple reports unit sales to customers, not units shipped to vendors (Like Samsung does). If you want more information, call one of the stock trading firms or financial analysts…

  71. I bought the Xoom and returned it. It is not even close to even my original ipad. The screen is a real high contrast, you cannot Ad-Hoc Tether (This was a dealbreaker. I have to be able to at least tether to my iphone), not a real USB drive and the LAG!!!!! It was the laggiest thing I have ever seen.

    I installed Firefox and some pages took a couple of minutes to start and that was when it would stay open. The market probably only has about 30 apps that are made for it and even they look “years old”.

    I thought it would be at least as good as the ist Gen ipad but I was wrong. It just felt incomplete.

  72. All you fandroids spec whores why don’t u respond to Hec and Ma0’s posts about how the Xoom gets it’s ass kicked by the iPad in the benchmark tests??? Hmmmm????

  73. @Alan:
    “Also, the expectation of one, fully loaded SKU outselling six Apple SKUs at varying price points is internet forum nonsense.”

    Funny….whenever I have mentioned on this blog that the reason why Android has a SLIM marketshare lead ovet the iPhone (29%-27%) is bcuz they outnumber they iPhone by about 100 to 1, I’m accused of drinking the “Apple kool-aid”. How convenient that this same type of argument is being used by fandroids in defense of the poor sales of the Exhume….err, Xoom. Hypocrisy at it’s finest…..

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