Can the Amazon Kindle Fire Eat 15% of the Tablet Market With 12 Million Units Sold in 2012?


When Amazon’s tablets were first rumored we predicted they had the best shot at challenging Apple in the tablet game than anyone. They are all about affordability and generating revenue through their ecosystem so we knew their devices would be competitively priced from the starting gate, putting them in good position to steal a good chunk of the market share from anyone, not just Apple.

According to Citi analyst Mark Mahaney, Amazon will do a great job in 2012. They estimate the online retail giant will sell 12 million units accounting for $3.2 billion in revenue, enough to take 15% of the market. In just. One. Year. Will this absolutely happen? No one can say for sure, but if anyone can be that ambitious about their ability to take on Apple it’s Amazon.

Of course, the Kindle Fire that’s out now may not be the only tablet out in 2012. Amazon is rumored to have 8.9 inch and 10.1 inch devices on the way sometime next year under the same brand, though it’s unclear which direction they’ll go with these. The wait will be a bit unbearable but it’ll be worth seeing how Amazon approaches these next couple of devices. [ATD]

Quentyn Kennemer
The "Google Phone" sounded too awesome to pass up, so I bought a G1. The rest is history. And yes, I know my name isn't Wilson.

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  1. i might argue that many of the consumers buying the Kindle Fire were not already in the tablet market. that is, they were not necessary swayed away from purchasing a different tablet (like an iPad or some android tablet), but rather they were waiting for a device like this to hit the market before purchasing. the difference is that in this scenario, amazon isn’t “stealing” market share from Apple or any other manufacturer.

    food for thought.

    1. If the Fire is encroaching on any market, I’d contend that it’s encroaching on the iPod Touch market share. That’s what this is directly competing with… This and the Nook. Oh, and the e-ink market as well. But this thing is an iPod Touch killer, not an iPad killer.  (If it’s a “killer” at all)

      1. That was the first reaction my 13 year old had when he saw my kindle fire – “Dad, I’d rather have that than an iPod”. 

    2. as logic goes, it’s obvious they were in the tablet market, or they wouldn’t have gotten a tablet. just because they didn’t buy the first ipad on release day, doesn’t exclude them from being in the market, just waiting for a tab that fits their needs/wants.

  2. Careful, the Fire isn’t quite a tablet.  It’s an ereader that runs some Android apps.  I could see how the uninformed would go for this device but there are apparently missing APIs that won’t allow some apps to run.  There are other off brand full blown tablets for $200 that run nearly all Android apps.

    1. The Kindle Fire is more tablet than most people need. The Fire is out to prove a point that tablets don’t have to be everything an iPad or a XOOM is and that people will accept a lot less. The iPad and the Honeycomb tablets have features that are trying to replace your laptop. Most people aren’t ready to part with their laptops, so the iPad and Honeycomb tablets are too expensive. The Kindle Fire doesn’t do as much, but it compliments a laptop instead of trying to replace it and that’s something most people can agree with for $200.

      1. Just saying Fire shouldn’t be called a ‘tablet’.  It’s an expanded ‘ereader’.  Am actually glad to see Amazon use Android.  It will significantly boost the base.  

        But when I tell people considering Fire that it’s not a full blown Android tablet, most didn’t realize that.  Most probably don’t care that it doesn’t run all apps, but there are a lot of Fire candidates who don’t know it just runs a subset.  In the meantime, there are other tablets with better specs than Fire and run all apps for around $200 and many more are likely to come.

  3. I know of at least 3 friends who bought the Fire and returned it. It’s really just a glorified e-reader.

    1. I actually really like it but I already own a iPad 2, galaxy tab 10.1 and a touchpad. I use the fire strictly for shopping on Amazon when I’m taking my morning dump. It’s great for that!

      1. You have a tablet strictly for shopping Amazon in the bathroom? I really hope you’re joking. I wish I had money to throw around like that.

        1. Agreed!

    2. well duh, the only people talking it up like an ipad killer were tech blogs. Anyone with a working brain cell knew all the Fire was, was an e-reader on steroids. 

  4. I love my Fire as a media consumption device (especially books and Amazon On Demand video) but it’s definitely no tablet.  I’m in the odd position of taking both my Fire and either my Galaxy Tab 10.1 or a netbook pretty much everywhere.  If Amazon were to release an Amazon On Demand video app for other Android devices I wouldn’t be nearly as interested in the Fire, and would probably get a Galaxy Tab 8.9 or 7+ to replace both devices.

    The screen is absolutely beautiful but the device is definitely NOT a tablet – it’s purely a consumption device, for now, and the hardware limitations means that even with all the apps I use a tablet for there’s still going to be a lot of stuff I use a tablet for that it can’t do (Skype, for example).

    1. Consumption vs what? A productivity tool? Give me a break. All tablets are consumption devices.

      1. From my Galaxy Tab, which is large enough to have a non-painful typing interface, I can write email, documents, and code. Because of the built-in microphone I can sketch out music via uLoops Studio and the like. Because of the camera and microphone I can use Skype and UStream. Because of the nice large accurate screen I can draw using Sketchbook (with a capacitive stylus) and have plenty of space to work in.

        None of those are possible (or, if possible, particularly convenient) on the Fire.

        And this is just off the top of my head, with the things I do with my tablet nearly every day.

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