Is The Nexus One Good For Google?
But ask yourself this: going by pure sales, how many units does Google need to sell in order to consider the Nexus One a success. By Andy Rubin’s own count they only expect/hope the Nexus One will sell a minimum of 150,000 units altogether. That is a modest amount by any stretch of the imagination, considering this is the first phone announced by Google.
But it isn’t a “gPhone” and I think that’s the misconception in most cases. But misconception or not – I’m blown away by the numbers being thrown around and the opinions attached to those numbers.
Doug Anmuth from Barclays Capital estimated 5-6 million Nexus One phones would be sold in 2010. That’s a lot if you ask me… and John P. from the WSJ seemed to agree. But after first week sales were estimated at only 20,000, Citi released a downgraded sales estimate of only 2-3 million Nexus Ones sales in 2010 which they called modest.
ONLY 2-3 million? That’s a lot if you ask me. But comparing it to some of the other smartphone powerhouses it sure as heck doesn’t seem like a lot:
The counter argument is that Google didn’t aim to release a phone that blew everything else out of the water, but instead introduce a new distribution concept to change the course the current industry has taken. That’s all fine and dandy but in my humble opinion, Google should have done a bit more.
I think the Nexus One is probably the best phone on the market – you can make an argument for or against the iPhone but in the end that comes down to preference. My problem is that the Nexus One doesn’t just blow everything else away in some way or another. It’s another Android 2.X device, the specs are compareable to the Droid and the price is right in line with other smartphones.
But it isn’t a gPhone. That’s the problem… everyone was expecting THE Google Phone. THE gPhone. And that’s not what this is… at least I don’t think and I hope not. But any way you slice the cake I think Google should have been aiming for something that was head and shoulders above everything else. Why not launch the Nexus One alongside Android 3.0?
It’s difficult to argue that the Nexus One will hurt Google in the short run – it’ll sell way more than the “modest” prediction of 150,000 by Andy Rubin, especially once it’s opened up to more carriers. The argument that it hurts Google in the long-run could be made much more easily since it slightly muddies the waters with their partners, but the argument that it will help them by changing the paradigm in the mobile distribution model is just as strong.
So what do you think: will the Nexus One be considered a good thing for Google in the long run? What will it take to make it a success in the short-run? In my opinion it will be sleeper/quiet short AND long-run success, but I think if Google had forced the specs to be a bit more outrageous and coincided the release with a bigger upgrade of Android, they could have knocked it out of the park.
And actually that makes me wonder… do you think it’s possible that Google planned for the Nexus One to be the first phone with Android 2.0 but Verizon negotiated that as part of the Droid deal? That would certainly thicken the plot and its always interesting to ponder what goes on in those cigar filled rooms. Hmmmmm.
Oh yeah… the ultra-smart Om Malik seems to agree with me. Or maybe I agree with him. Either way, we share the same opinion that the sales numbers are optimistic but either way, Google is cooking up success.