By According to a Taiwanese news source, HTC is expecting the G1 to create $747 Million Dollars of new revenue for the manufacturer. That number includes forecasts of $218 Million in 2008 and $529 Million in 2009. That’s from only the G1… HTC could (and likely will) release another Android handset before 2009 concludes.
Apparently, T-Mobile plans on ordering between 1.5 million and 2 million G1 handsets including 400k-500k which will be sold in 2008. But do the numbers add up?
If author Steven Huang is spot on with the numbers then selling 500,000 units THIS year at $179/G1 would result in less than $100 million in revenue. Does that mean T-Mobile is subsidizing over 50% of the device’s cost with a 2-year contract? Hmmm.
Later in the article, we find the following quote: “As a competing model against HTC`s Diamond, Apple`s iPhone and Samsung`s Omnia smartphones, G1, without either Google`s or HTC`s mark on it…”
Well we know THAT is inaccurate, which makes those numbers seem a little more flimsy. But it DOES raise a pretty set of questions. The 400k to 500k units has been the standard G1 forecast around the web… but how much revenue will it create? How much subsidizing is T-Mobile doing? What does T-Mobile forecast its revenue increase will be directly resulting from the G1?
The above is a fun excercise in speculation, but I’m not sure how accurate the information is. In addition, the revenue numbers were provided in Taiwanese currency, New Taiwan Dollar and translated to US Dollars using, ironically, Yahoo currency converter. If its any consolation, I found it by googling ;)
[Via CENS.com]
T-Mo shows the full price of the G1 as $399. The $179 price is after a $220 subsidy. That sounds about right for a 2-year contract, especially one that requires $25/month for data on top of a voice plan.
On the other hand, T-Mo doesn’t necessarily pay HTC $399 for each G1.
If you need to convert currencies, you can use google, too: just search for a string like
“100 taiwanese dollars in USD” (without the quotes), and there you go.
Stock in HTC?
Nope, to be honest I have 0 dollars in the stock market. The recent fluctuations make me happy I don’t. But, if I had the money to waste, I’d be thinking about picking up stock in HTC, Google, RIM… wanna lend me some dollars?
I’m sure the analysts would tell you that TECH spending will dip and/or dive because the economy sucks and electronics is one thing people will cut back on. But like it or not, people need phones and the prices of phones are low now. I mean, $199 for a device that’ll last you 2 years and kicks total arse? I don’t think that is a lot of money to most people that are somewhat financially secure.
Phones are more than just phones now. They are email devices. They are… well I don’t have to explain this to anyone reading phandroid. But they are also fashion items. People will continue to spend money on phones and I think HTC and RIM would both be good buys.
Keep in mind I am NOT an expert, don’t take that as financial advice. I’m basing it all on speculation of the company’s future success. Anyone truly looking at Stock’s need to look at the ratios and the balance sheets. Do your homework people! (or buy mutual funds)