Gartner: Android to be Number Two Worldwide Before 2011, Surpass Nokia in 2014


Yay, research and analytics! Today’s pro-Android projections come from Gartner who just last year predicted Android would be the second-most adopted mobile operating system by 2012. I guess Android did a lot better than they originally expected because they’re now pushing that window up to “by year-end 2010”. According to them, they’ll be beaten only by Nokia whose Symbian OS has been on the market much longer than most of their competitors’ and in a variety of devices ranging from low to high end (with origins dating back to the late 1980s).


This is not to be confused by sales market share – which usually goes quarter-by-quarter and on a sales-only basis. This is a projection of Android’s true install base over time. By 2014, they expect Android and Symbian to account for nearly 60% of the worldwide market share combined, with Android eventually taking the lead before that year is over (as the two will be neck and neck at nearly 30% each). A year ago, it sounded crazy. So did Android growing by 900%, and look how that turned out. With Gartner not only adjusting their expectations, but adjusting them dramatically, I can’t say these predictions sound too farfetch’d. Go, Andy, go!

[via Gartner]

Quentyn Kennemer
The "Google Phone" sounded too awesome to pass up, so I bought a G1. The rest is history. And yes, I know my name isn't Wilson.

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  1. I’m constantly amazed at the speed at which android has been growing in the last couple of years. This is pretty cool, and makes me think of BlackBerry. Are they predicted to even be around in the next 3-5 years?

  2. Did you really mean, “by year-end 2010,″ or is it really,“by year-end 2011?″

  3. You know what would rock? If RIM and Google could work together to create Android phones with hardware-level encryption, and a management system as robust as BES. That would certainly keep RIM alive, and would guarantee Android the #1 spot in mobile market share. RIM still wins hands-down on security and enterprise management, but is sorely lacking in usability these days. Google + RIM = a force to be reckoned with.

  4. I meant by year-end 2010 if that’s what Gartner meant. Direct quote from the source link.

  5. @Bugeyeblue RIM is going the way of Yahoo, early leader but stop innovating. I wouldn’t be surprised if MSFT buys RIM in a couple year hoping to get some traction after their WinMo7 effort eventually fails. MSFT is just MSFT, not paying attention enough, and then throw tons of money for a small and shrinking slice of a pie.

  6. With Android being on different phones: high end, mid range….multiple phones, multiple carriers, and its a very nice OS….this should be expected.

    I guarantee if the Android OS sucked bad, this wouldnt be happening. It shows Google and the phone manufactures are doing something right. The hardware just gets better n better, the OS too…

  7. @Brad: I don’t think Google needs RIM to create a secure enterprise mobile platform. Google has tons of security experts and know a lot of about enterprise security since they are trying hard to get companies to move to cloud computing. The reason they have not put as much effort into enterprise features on mobile because they are focusing first on the consumer market (like Apple did with the iphone). Note that security will often limit choice and flexibility, which is against what Android champions to gain the consumer market foothold. Even if Android have security is at RIM level, it would make a very slow in road for enterprise. Companies are notorious at changing platform until they are pushed by their worker. So getting the consumer market is the first priority.

  8. Android is a flash in the pan OS! The software is just too slow and buggy and all the apps are lame! Google should just give up and be bought by Apple already! I don’t want to brag but my lord and savoir Mr. Ste*e Jo*s has entrusted me alone to alpha test the new prototype i*hone 5 and let me tell you it’s MAGIC!!! It’s got 9G speeds, 3tb ssd, 2 front facing cameras for 3D facetime, it’s made out of the same material as the T-1000 so it can shapeshift, it’s powered by unobtainum so it has a 2 year battery life, and yes, it can fly! I have to remain in a specially built walled garden protected by armed lawers to test it, and when I’m finished testing it I have to take an epic journey to throw it into a volcano. Android= just another smartphone. APPLE= MAGIC!!!

    Typed via telepathy on my i*hone 5 on AT&T’s awesome (largest in America) netwo……. Oops signal lost.


  10. My only concern is that there will eventually be no competition against android meaning google would have no reason to do updates anymore, definitely not as crazy they are now with the awesome constant updates.

  11. It will be extremely sad if there’s no competition.

    Google’s has a tendency to exploit people when they have no significant competition.

    Look no further than the Android market where developers have no good options for selling their apps. Google’s revenue share model is 70 – 30. Google takes 30% of sales. The developer only gets 70% of sales. A 2.87% billing fee is charged in addition to the 30% fee. In comparison:

    RIM’s revenue share model: 80/20
    Amazon: Varies from 90/10 to 95/5
    Sales Force: 100/0

    The Android market has not been significantly improved upon, even though Android is extremely successful. Google know there are no good options for developers, and thus they have no desire or incentive to improve.

  12. @JR, What do you mean better than APPLE? Hands down Droid smokes the APPLE, I know someone that owns pretty much every super phone out there from my personal Moto Droid, the INCREDIBLE, the EVO and the X. I also know quite a phew with the IPHONE 4, 3 and original. Every single one of them has complaints and compliments. However with out a doubt, the complaints come in a waterfall from the Apple owners. While the Android crowd is always so excited about what they can do with there phone. Why they are so successful is because they have opened up that OS to every one and any one that wants the thing. It’s not sold as the “exclusive phone!” You do not have to be pompous, arrogant and above all, annoying to own this phone, you don’t have to be so full of yourself to enjoy this one that you think you’re better than everyone one who does not own it. You don’t have to follow the occult that is the “IPHONE crowd” and listen to Steve Jobs ignorant attitude and acts as if he is GOD himself… I am just waiting until the day there is a mass suicide of IPHONE users because Steve Jobs convinces them all they will be going to a higher place to be with only Mac Users. What is the future? There will be an ADROID in every hand and IPHONE in every trash can…

  13. Hi Peter,
    As far as I understand, Google do not take any commision on Android app sales. Carriers took 30% out of Android app sales.

  14. Hi Brandedhome,

    You are misinformed. I’m an Android developer. It’s Google that takes the 30%.

    There are some rumors on the internet that the 30% is returned to the carrier. However there’s no evidence of that, and no official confirmation by Google. Google’s official name for the 30% fee is a transaction fee. Here’s the link:

    On top of the 30% Google charges a 2.9% billing/processing fee.

  15. Hi brandedhome,
    It’s Google that charges the 30% transaction fee, not the carrier. In addition Google charges a 2.9% processing/billing fee. There are rumors on the internet that Google may be sharing the 30% transaction fee with carriers. However there is no evidence, and no official statement to support it. I know, since I’m an Android developer.

  16. @Brad spoken like someone who has never managed a BES. The Server software sucks, it often has to be restarted, or users deleted and recreated.

  17. jeff i love you

  18. Hi Peter,
    There is some evidence due to google not selling paid apps on networks that they haven’t signed an agreement with. See Optus(Aus) where there was a holdup for around a year due to it.

  19. Thanks Neto, just nerding out. @jeffsandroid

  20. OMG. I mean, I make pretty good money on the Android market right now, but when you look at this, it’s depressing:

    Only NINE COUNTRIES can buy paid apps….?

    -Brad 2

  21. One important factor has got to be the rate of significant upgrades and not just the fact that android is on multiple carriers and phones. After all, RIM and winmo are on many carriers but they have been slow to innovate.

  22. “It will be extremely sad if there’s no competition.
    Google’s has a tendency to exploit people when they have no significant competition.”

    Peter you make it sound as if Android was produced in a slave worker factory in Shenzhen China

  23. @Peter Could you provide an example of Google taking advantage of someone? Maybe a link?

    Also, Android is open source, in theory the carriers, motivated customers, handset manufacturers, app developers, in fact anyone, could add features. There will still be competition from handset manufacturers to differentiate their product and Carriers to differentiate their services. Like this we can have one OS and competition

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